SUMMARY

UN has set 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to achieve by 2030. Overall, the goals are supposed to address social, economic, and environmental issues in our world. However, the biggest challenge that threatens the achievement of the UN SDGs is the inability to address the root cause of the problems. Addressing the root cause of the problem instead of the symptoms (effects) will lead to a better outcome. For example, poverty is the effect of bad governance, war, or sanction. The people who are affected by it can not afford basic needs. Moreover, bad governance has the root cause that will persist if not addressed and increase unsustainable development problems. Thus, the objective of this article is to assess the root cause of unsustainable development problems from the driver of human behaviors. The data of the 150 nations are also analyzed and evaluated to validate the hypothesis and identify other issues. Thus, the article will also include recommendations for leadership principles, valuable metrics, the performance management system, and other suggestions to achieve sustainable development. The aim is to help individuals, organizations, and nations to adjust actions to achieve UN SDGs.

NOMENCLATURE

CAGR:  Compound Annual Growth Rate

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

IMF: International Monetary Fund

IHDI: Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index

LDC: Least Developed Countries

OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

RCA: Root Cause Analysis

UN SDGs: United Nations Sustainable Goals

INTRODUCTION

As an engineer, I know the importance of understanding problems, fundamentals, and goals. In this article, I rely on my research, engineering, and creativity skills to identify the root cause of the problem and propose a solution. I embraced a data-driven approach and took time to analyze and evaluate data. I also took advantage of the knowledge in engineering, social sciences, and business that I have acquired through experiences include research related to low and high-performing people, organizations, and nations. 

I was born in Tanzania (3rd world country) and later immigrated to Canada (1st world country). Moreover, I have engineering degrees and read books and articles from various fields, which help me to see the big picture. As a person, I admire polymaths like Leonardo da Vinci, Peter Drucker, and Charlie Munger.  In 2020 when I was working on a paper for smart-renewable energy for Sub-Saharan Africa, I realized that the barrier to affordability is poverty. I concluded that there is a greater need to address the root cause of unsustainable development first. This year I decided to identify the root cause of the problem first.

When it comes to sustainable development, the behavior of human beings plays a vital role in success or failure to achieve the goals. Therefore,  identifying and acknowledging the root cause of the problem should be the first step to achieving sustainable development. In contrast, addressing the symptoms and ignoring the causation is like patching the crack on the house foundation caused by tree roots. In a sense, failure to address the tree root problem will cause more damage in the long run.

Some research on cause-effects focused on the interrelation and synergy of SDGs[19][20]. Others like [12] focused on the Bayesian network of UN SDGs. On the other hand, [11] investigated the cause-effect of the eco-friendly environment policy for sustainable development. However, they found out that the current models have limitations in assessing the effectiveness of policies for sustainable development. They also said some models have unrealistic assumptions. Other than that, there are several articles on the causes of poverty, poor governance, and barriers to sustainable development [6][7][22][23]. For example, in the World Bank article, they stated the barrier to growth in underdeveloped nations is low innovation. IMF also found that developing countries collect less tax due to inefficient tax systems.  Note, poor governance and corruption are interrelated. They cause ineffective, unfair, and inefficient systems. In turn, they contribute to the increase in poverty, low innovation, and decrease in quality education and healthcare systems.

On a side note, the cause-effect relationship of a policy is rather complex. The contributing factors that can produce desired results of the policy change with time. The nature of things requires responsible individuals to adjust actions based on changes in the environment and performance to achieve the desired outcome. Similar to the way the captain of the ship adjusts to get to the destination.

In short, the formulation and successful implementation of effective policy depends on multiple contributing factors. Identification of the problem, engagement of key stakeholders to get their inputs and buy-in, and analysis and evaluation of available evidence are necessary for effective policy. A policy with a clear objective that aligns with the vision and principles of sustainable development is a must for success. The funds and the right metrics for performance are vital for success too. The analysis and evaluation of performance will also help to adjust to achieve desired results. Equally important is accountability and transparency of those responsible based on the performance.  

CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVE UN SDGs

Attempt to achieve SDGs without addressing the underlying issues that cause poor governance, corruption, and poverty will lead to unsustainable development. Bad governance is the barrier to sustainable development. In other words, achieving UN SDGs requires nations to have good governance and support systems to maximize human potential. However, most of the underdeveloped countries have poor governance. Moreover, having meaningful metrics will help to account for what matters most. But, the unemployment rate is not a good performance indicator to help achieve SDG 8 for underdeveloped countries. As shown below, countries with few decent jobs and low GDP somehow have low unemployment rates.

Fig 1: UN Sustainable Development Report for SDG 8 Unemployment Performance Indicator

The table below show some of the LDC have achieved the SDG 8 indicator for unemployment. I don’t know how they estimate their unemployment rate. But some of these countries have a large percent of peasant farmers. Burundi has 86% laborers in the agriculture sector and a 0.8% unemployment rate. In addition, LDCs have small vendors on the street and market and other cheap laborers who earn less than the cost of living. 

Table 1: Unemployment rate of LDC on UN Sustainable Development Report

SDG 8 is the goal for decent work and economic growth. It requires meaningful metrics that will help to achieve sustainable development. The reality is a small percentage of LDC people are employed and paid enough money to afford a nutritious meal, shelter, clean water, energy, and quality education.  Decent work should account for fair wages to afford basic needs to enable humans to maximize their potential to achieve sustainable development.

Moreover, a significant increase in income of the few could result in GDP growth. Therefore, it makes sense to have a reliable tracking system to evaluate the income distribution of the total working-age population. Below are developing countries’ performance indicators for SGD 8:

1. Adjusted GDP growth (%)
2. Victims of modern slavery (per 1,000 population) 
3. Adults with an account at a bank or other financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population aged 15 or over) 
4. Unemployment rate (% of total labor force) 
5. Fundamental labor rights are effectively guaranteed (worst 0–1 best)
6. Fatal work-related accidents embodied in imports (per 100,000 population)

Furthermore, the performance indicators for non-OECD countries for quality education goal SDG 4 focus on quantity instead of quality. Below are SDG 4 performance indicators shown on UN sustainable development report dashboard for developing countries: 

1. Net primary enrollment rate (%) 
2. Lower secondary completion rate (%) 
3. Literacy rate (% of population aged 15 to 24)

Similarly, the cost of living varies from one city to another, and therefore the amount in dollars per day required will vary. Thus, instead of using US $1.90/day or $3.20/day as a measure to achieve SDGs 1 it makes sense to use a relative amount that account for the cost of living of the city one live.

METHODOLOGY

The root cause analysis (RCA), inversion, qualitative and quantitative analysis are among the methods used to identify the root cause of the problem and solution for sustainable development. The inversion technique is commonly used in physics and mathematics to solve the problem. In this case it is used to find out what would cause nations to fail to achieve sustainable development. In other words, inversion allows one to find the root cause of unsustainable development. Hence, the ability to address the problem and achieve SDGs. The diagram below illustrates a high level of the overall procedure. 

Fig 2: Invert Sustainable Development

The quantitative and qualitative research on data from multiple sources for 150 countries was key to gathering insight that help to understand problems and solution. The data used were from ILO, World Bank, UNDP, IMF, and other sources. The insights from data helped to understand the cause of the success and failure of economic development and identify the issues related to performance indicators and accountability and transparency.  Moreover, the 10-years CAGR was estimated using the formula below.

Identification and acknowledgment of problems and willingness to address them will help us to create a better world. So, we should not fear the change that will help us to achieve sustainable development.  The first step was to understand causal factors for failure and identifying the root cause. The wisdom of great thinkers like Confucius, Aristotle, Adam Smith, and Peter Drucker and contributing factors of failure and success of the countries with poor and imperfect good governance helped to solve the problem. So far, there is no perfect good governance because no nation has achieved sustainable development. Still, the leaders of the countries with poor governance systems need to do more work to improve the quality of life of the people living in those nations.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

RCA of Unsustainable Development

As shown in Fig. 4, poor governance and corruption cause unsustainable development. They stem from undesired behaviors for sustainable development. The driver of these undesired behaviors includes fear, anger, greed, ego, envy, laziness, and a fixed mindset. Fear, greed, inflated ego, jealousy, and anger are causes of the economic and financial crises, inequalities, wars, and other manmade disasters. They cause people to be irrational and self-centered instead of doing the right things for the greater good of humanity. The effects of bad governance include poverty, poor infrastructure, low innovation, low-quality education, and a healthcare system. Similarly, the lack of quality education, nutritious meals, and economic opportunities to earn sufficient income to afford these necessities causes poverty to increase. 

Fig 3: RCA Unsustainable Development

In short, the countries with poor governance and high corruption have ineffective, inefficient, and unfair systems. They have high abuse of power, which are barriers to achieving SDGs. The favoritism, abuse of power, and other discriminatory conduct will cause the nations to fail to achieve SDG 5 and 10. Moreover, corruption, ineffective tax system, political instability, security, poor quality of education, and poor infrastructure are among the barriers to the friendly business environment. They increase the risks of both local and foreign investors. The unfriendly business environment and low-quality healthcare system are barriers to achieve SDG 1- 4, 6 - 8,10 - 11, and 16. On the other hand, lack of effective eco-friendly policies and greed are barriers to achieve SDG 12-15. Thus, without a team of passionate leaders with skills, wisdom, and commitment to lead the implementation of good governance policies, the success of achieving SDGs is at risk.

Below is a table with the countries with low IHDI. IHDI is the multi-dimension human development indicator that combines health, income, and education metrics adjusted for inequalities. Additionally, the sample result includes the indicator for government effectiveness, one of the six indicators of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). The other five WGIs are voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control corruption. The quantified numbers include experts’ opinions. On average low-income countries score below 25 on all six WGI.  These countries have high poverty and poor-quality education and healthcare systems. In addition, they have low innovation and high corruption.

Table 2: Nations with Poor Governance and Low IHDI

Unlike the least developed nations, developed nations have high IHDI, innovation, and income. They also have a low percent of laborers in the agriculture sector and a business-friendly environment. The WGI of the developed nations with a high income for all six indicators is above 80%. Their IHDI is also above 0.8.

Table 3: Developed Nations with high IHDI and Low Debt

Furthermore, Rwanda, Russia, and Singapore are among the outliers. For Rwanda, I was not able to find sufficient evidence to validate its WGI values [25][53][54][55][56]. The good thing, Rwanda's priorities for vision 2050 to become a high-income nation includes: 

1. Human capital development
2. Export dynamism and regional integration
3. Well-managed urbanization
4. Competitive domestic enterprises
5. Agricultural modernization
6. Capable and accountable public institutions

 A CAGR of ~12% is required to realize vision 2050, as shown in the table below. However, its current 10-years CAGR is about 1.78%, innovation rate 23.9, IHDI score is 0.39, and the poverty rate is at least 38.2. Note, Rwanda had a high growth rate of ~9% between 2007 and 2012. Also, while it has high enrollment for primary school, its quality of education is low. It is also too soon to determine if Rwanda subsidized programs for housing, agriculture, internet, and clean energy will lead to sustainable development in the long run. Additionally, the percentage of agriculture employment in Rwanda is at least 62.29%.

Table 4: Summary of GDP per Capita projection for Rwanda

Rwanda's GDP per capita in 1993 before the war in 1994 was US $315, and by 2005 was the US $332. Given historical information for economic growth, I can assume the high estimate for 30-years CAGR for Rwanda is 6.75%, and an overly-optimistic rate is 12.2%. But the tenacity, passion, ingenuity, and competency of the Rwandese coupled with how well its leaders govern Rwanda will determine the actual rate. Note, there is high competition within Africa and globally. While setting an ambitious goal is easy, it is the successful execution of effective policies that will help to realize the vision. So, if Rwandese are willing to do the right things to achieve sustainable development, they will someday realize its vision.

Table 5: Combination of developed and developing nations

On the other hand, other subjective WGI performances for Russia are:

1. Voice and Accountability = 19.81%
2. Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism = 20.75%
3. Regulatory Quality = 36.06%
4. Rule of Law = 22.6%
5. Control of Corruption=19.23%

But it has high IHDI and GDP and low debt per GDP. Russia's income inequality is high relative to other high-income countries. It also has corruption issues. The governance issues are likely to lead to unsustainable development if they are left unresolved. Still, the question lingering at the back of my mind, why are we ignoring other form of corruptions? Singapore, on the other hand, had a Voice and Accountability score of 38.2%.

Singapore began its initiatives for clean, green, healthy, inclusive, and economic transformation in 1960s. The success of Singapore is in part due to its meritocratic system that has no tolerance for corruption and undesired behaviors for development. Singapore invests a lot in education and the improvement of the overall quality of life of its people. However, its intolerance can trigger abuse of power if the leader's judgment is impaired. A good measure of accountability is the ability of leaders and their teams to take ownership of their performance and adjust to deliver the desire results. Equally important is to make sound judgments and act responsibly to ensure justice and the well-being of the people in the society.  

The goal should be to have the right leaders for sustainable development regardless of the type of democratic system. Singapore's democratic system is different from that of western countries. However, neither the eastern nor western democratic system is perfect. They both have their flaws and require improvements. Both authoritarian and libertarian democratic systems have leaders and misleaders. The misleaders and other bad actors can corrupt systems to benefit themselves and a few at the expense of the majority. Our world needs leaders who will make decisions for the greater good of people in a nation without hidden agenda. The world does not need authoritarian misleaders or multiple parties that run campaigns based on the polarization of political ideology, ethnicity, promotion of gender inequality, or religion. These are the source of inequality, political instability, and abuse of power.  They are a threat to achieving sustainable development goals. 

A Key to Sustainable Development

The key to sustainable development is effective, efficient, and fair systems. It requires economic, legal, and other reforms and a change in behaviors. Change in the behaviors of humans is vital to reduce poverty, inequality, corruption, and environmental pollution and prevent financial and economic crises in the future. Since leaders influence the behaviors of their followers, they need to have the right skills and character for sustainable development. If you look back historically, you will realize the success of the nations requires passionate servant leaders with wisdom, a clear vision, and the ability to lead people to realize the vision.

Singapore and Mauritius were able to transform their economy by maximizing human potential, embracing an open economy, and create good governance. Although they did not have natural resources, their leaders were determined to find ways to succeed. James Meade predicted that Mauritius would fail due to a lack of natural resources and natural disasters. But Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam was able to quickly realize that Mauritius's great asset is its human resources. Similarly, Lee Kuan Yew recognized that Singapore's human resources are assets. 

Singapore and Mauritius leaders invested heavily in education. They also built infrastructures and embraced open economic policies. They created policies that allowed them to attract foreign investors and export goods to other countries. They also enforced laws to ensure political stability and security. Moreover, Singapore's government incentivized desire behaviors to achieve the goal. They also launched multiple campaigns to influence change in behaviors.

Since the behavior of humans influences outcomes in our changing world, the iterative process below is ideal to influence the desirable behaviors. The model will consist of the principles to guide the decision-making and actions of the leaders. It also includes support systems to reinforce the desired behaviors for sustainable development. The support systems can encompass education, incentives, law enforcement, funds, and suitable tools for people in a particular environment. The awareness campaigns, training, practicing, coaching, or mentoring can help to maximize learning. 

Fig 4: Behavior reinforcement process

Human beings can change behavior and create new habits. The leadership principles can guide the actions and decisions of the leaders to achieve the SDGs. The repetition of actions over time will become a habit. In turn, they become part of the one character. Below are leadership principles to guide our actions and decisions of leaders to achieve sustainable development.

1. Do the right things to address the current and future needs of the people.
2. Maximize the capabilities of the human resources.
3. Cultivate virtue driven culture and growth mindset
4. Promote fairness, equality, and inclusion.
5. Aim for a clean, healthy, and eco-friendly environment.
6. Consume food, energy, technology, and other goods and resources responsibly.
7. Embrace innovation for sustainable development.

Wise people-centered leaders who will do the right things for the greater good of humanity are necessary for success. The kind of leaders who will help to maximize human resources capabilities to achieve sustainable development. Great leaders like Lee Kuan Yew are lifelong learners who continued to lead after they step down. For them, what matters is their ability to make a positive impact. Lee continued to advise and mentor leaders in Singapore and other nations during his lifetime.  Below are the characteristics of the leader for sustainable development.

1. Self-knowledge & Growth mindset
2. Passionate servant leader with wisdom
3. Integrity & Honesty
4. Purpose-driven
5. Courageous & Humble
6. Fair & Responsible
7. Independent thinker & Control emotions
8. Truth’s seeker

Moreover, the meaningful metrics to measure performance will help one adjust based on quantitative and qualitative assessment. The metrics are necessary for transparency and taking corrective actions. However, some of the current metrics require changes to help the leaders and their people to achieve sustainable development.  Quantitative metrics to measure the quality of healthcare, education, and the percentage of people with decent work, will help achieve sustainable development. 

The quality of the education system is key to the success of the nation in the wisdom era. Critical thinking is vital for sustainable development innovation. Thus, the measure for quality of education system needs to account for the following:

1. Level of proficiency in math, reading, writing, technology, and science
2. Measuring the percentage of skilled and dedicated teachers is necessary to improve the quality of education. Teachers can not teach students something they lack knowledge and skill.
3. The number of cost-effective measures to attract, train, coach, and retain qualified staff and their outcome.
4. Class size
5. The percentage of available resources necessary to learn
6. Composite Learning Index (CLI)
7. The number of effective campaign to influence change in behavior to improve hygiene, work ethics, lifelong learning, responsible consumption and production, disease prevention, equality and inclusion, and ethical behavior 
8. Percentage of women that complete primary school and enroll in secondary school
9. Percentage of men that complete primary school and enroll in secondary school
10. The percentage of schools that have clean water to drink and a clean environment
11. The percentage of schools with electricity
12. The number of quality arts and creativity programs
13. Playground
    
14. The average number of science labs with necessary resources per school
15. To measure the number of effective campaigns to promote reading, problem-solving and critical thinking skills in a community and their outcome. An increase in the number of lifelong learners, problem-solver, and critical thinkers in a community is key to success. The emphasis should be more on problem-solving and critical thinking instead of rote learning in the wisdom era.
16. The number of clean washrooms with functional toilets, sink and soap dispenser per 100 students
17. Percentage of students that complete secondary school and college with the ability to solve problems in the society. The validation could be base on a project to solve a particular community problem.
18. The number of communities with the public Library and Computer facility within 6.25 miles radius

The percentage of students who receive an affordable quality education is another metric that will help achieve the goal. The results will help adjust actions in a way that will help to achieve SDG 4.

Similarly, the quality of the healthcare system ought to include prevention measures that reduce the costly and painful treatment of diseases. Equally important is the percentage of people who got cured after treatment for different types of sickness. Moreover, to measure the number of people who can not afford quality healthcare. The measure will help to increase the number of people who receive quality healthcare.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Aligning people's behaviors with the vision and principles of sustainable development and good governance are necessary for success. The nations that have good governance can reinforce their foundation in a way that will help them to achieve sustainable development. On the other hand, the countries with poor governance need to build the foundation of good governance. The countries' leaders must play a leadership role to ensure the proper implementation of good governance policies. UN, other organizations, and developed nations leaders can continue to provide advice, mentorship, coaching, and other tools to help the leaders of developing nations. The donors should incentivize the countries that are accountable and transparent on their initiatives to achieve sustainable development.

  Fig 5: Causal Chain Sustainable Development

Furthermore, each nation should take ownership and set its own goals. Before starting, they should assess their current performance. Then, set goals based on their current state and capabilities. It may make sense for nations with bad governance to prioritize political, legal, and economic reforms. It is also important to remember that technological innovation drive industrialization in the digital era. Therefore, innovation is key to the economic growth of the nation. Also, rapid innovation requires maximizing human resources capabilities. Thus, education and innovation policies to improve the quality of education and increase the innovation rate are necessary for success.

A plan with a top-down breakdown of the time-bounded objectives and key results with meaningful metrics that align with the vision for sustainable development is also a must. Equally important is the ability to monitor and control performance to achieve goals. The performance management system will help increase accountability and transparency and reduce the subjectivity of WGI and other subjective performance indicators. It will also minimize the chance of performance manipulation or hide information for some corrupted nations that fail to achieve the targets. Most importantly, the assessment of performance will help to take corrective actions to achieve the goals.

Therefore, I recommend a global performance management system that will allow grassroots leaders and community members to rate the performance of their nations, report problems, and submit evidence related to progress. Mobile and web apps for global citizens with unique identifications will help to increase transparency.  The users will need training on how to use the tool. The data analysis can be done automatically with AI and non-AI techniques and with internal and external experts. Moreover, the system can analyze other data like satellite imagery and expected and unexpected contributing factors to the performance.

Finding the best ways to progress our united nations forward in a sustainable way is key to success. While developed nations have sufficient funds and resources to improve the quality of their education and healthcare systems, most developing countries are struggling economically and require low cost-effective solutions. Thus, research for affordable quality healthcare and education systems is needed to achieve sustainable development. Also, more research is vital to identify the process to recruit and train the right leaders, best practices, and meaningful metrics to achieve sustainable development. Equally important is the research that will help build a reliable and cost-effective global performance management system to increase transparency and accountability. Below is a summary of a sample of few additional metrics that can help to achieve the goal.

1. Percentage total population of adults or adult seniors with no support or savings that earn below the minimum cost of living 
2. Distribution of the income of the total working-age population
3. Percentage of students who receive a quality education
4. Percentage of reduction in the costly and painful treatment of diseases through prevention
5. Amount spent for prevention initiatives in US $
6. Percentage of people with healthy weight
7. Percentage of people who got cured after treatment for different types of sickness
8. Percentage of people who can afford the quality healthcare
9. Percentage of people on substance abuse
10. The level of effectiveness of a particular medical treatment
11. The number of new decent jobs added in a particular year
12. The number of decent jobs lost in a particular year
13. The minimum cost of living of the city
14. Quality of services in the public sector (Global citizen service satisfaction, efficiency, etc.)
15. Level of cleanliness in the public hospital
16. The effectiveness of law enforcement officials (Community members satisfaction, ethical conducts, and overall performance in reducing the number of crimes and maintaining peace and order)
17. Percentage of the communities with reliable drainage and sewage systems of the nation
18. Level of cleanliness in the beaches, ocean, river, lake, and overall environment in the community
19. The number of eco-friendly waste management in the city
20. Level of quality care: Patient satisfaction, the outcome of the treatment, and level of ethical conduct of medical practitioners at a particular hospital

Finally, innovation for sustainable development requires us to find harmony between our inner beings and extrinsic rewards. It is important to remember that the meaning of our lives as human beings is not to give power to external things. A moral compass grounded on the principles of virtue ethics will help us to succeed. Indeed, the purpose of our lives is to be the best version of ourselves and help make the world a better place for the greater good of humanity. Thus, empowering individuals in our united nations to reach their full potential is the key to sustainable development.

Equal access to quality education, healthcare, and economic opportunities to all people will reduce the inequalities. The basic needs of human beings in the wisdom era should include food, shelter, clothing, clean water, and quality education and healthcare. Moreover, maximizing human beings' potential is the key to innovation for sustainable development. Thus, the success of the united nations will depend on their ability to maximize the full potential of individuals who can work together to achieve sustainable development. In other words, human beings with the potential to achieve greatness can solve problems for the greater good of humanity.

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